", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. University of Denver, 2. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? There are 391 such counties. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Election night is going to be information overload. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. So, where are the bellwether counties? Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO . From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Read about our approach to external linking. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Just how big is it? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. What are your thoughts on this article? A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. It almost became religious.". Trump won 18 of the 19. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Do you know this baby? Want to dive deeper? In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. hide caption. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Not a bad streak. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. 3. In their . That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Voter Demographics (9). Bellwether - Wikipedia In 2020, a single. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. But it's also not unprecedented. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Their hopes are real. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Watauga has gone for. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. 2. They're just facts about the vote. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. 2023 BBC. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. TIP: Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Still, the state's worth watching. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton (578) For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). 12. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. (Sorry, not sorry.) Ron Elving . Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). 9. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month.
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